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Warm and below average precipitation in long-range weather forecasts

The long-range weather forecast for southern Ontario contains some good news and some bad news.

The Farmer’s Almanac, Environment Canada and The Weather Network all call for above-average temperatures and below average rainfall.

Come January, it’s a bit of a jigsaw prediction. The Almanac says there will be above-normal precipitation and snowfall. “Winter will be colder than normal, with above-normal precipitation and snowfall. The coldest periods will be in early to mid-January, late January, and late February, with the snowiest periods in mid- and late December, early January, and mid-February.”

The Weather Network states, “At this point we think that December is more likely to be an extension of the mild fall pattern with the pattern change holding off until later in the winter (similar to what we saw in 2014-15). However, it is possible that the pattern will change more quickly (as it did in 2013). If we see signs of this happening as we finalize our winter forecast for release on November 21, 2016, we will need to expand the area of below normal temperatures.”

AccuWeather, an American media company that provides commercial weather forecasting services worldwide, says that dry and mild conditions will likely dominate into October across Ontario with limited relief from the ongoing drought. “Water temperatures over the Great Lakes will also remain above-normal through the season.”

“While the inevitable transition from summer to winter will still occur,” says the Weather Network, “the pattern will continue to favour warmer than normal temperatures for much of the season.”

AccuWeather notes that the drought conditions in eastern Canada will lead to an increased leaf drop early in the season due to the added stress on trees. This in turn could have a negative effect on the colours during the normal peak times.

The Weather Network explains as it fine tunes the forecast, “We will also seek to determine whether the focus of the coldest weather will be from Alberta to the Great Lakes, or farther east from Manitoba to the Maritimes.

No matter what type of weather we receive over the next few months, remember, “Weather is a great metaphor for life — sometimes it's good, sometimes it's bad, and there's nothing much you can do about it.”